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November 13, 2008
Sarah Palin Saved GOP From Landslide Defeat
Sarah Palin saved GOP from landslide defeat
by Dick Morris
As Richard Nixon wrote, “history is written by liberals,” but the story of the 2008 campaign is too important to cede to them the analysis of what happened. A close analysis of the returns indicates several key realities:
a) Sarah Palin made a vast difference in McCain’s favor. Compared to 2004, McCain lost 11 points among white men, according to the Fox News exit poll, but only four points among white women. Obama’s underperformance among white women, evident throughout the fall, may be chalked up, in large part, to the influence of Sarah Palin. She provided a rallying point for women who saw their political agenda in terms larger than abortion. She addressed the question of what it is like to be a working mother in today’s economy and society and resonated with tens of millions of white women who have not responded to the more traditional, and liberal, advocates for their gender.
b) Turnout did not increase substantially. Despite predictions (by me and others) of a vastly greater voter turnout, it didn’t happen. About 127 million people voted in 2008, compared to 122 million in 2004. By contrast, turnout rose by almost 20 million between 2000 and 2004. The emphasis on early voting and the heavy participation in primaries indicated the likelihood of a huge increase in turnout, but, on Election Day, the turnout was modest.
c) The black vote made a huge difference; but young people did not. Obama, as expected, generated a big increase in African-American voter turnout. Fox News’s exit polls estimate that blacks constituted 13 percent of the turnout in 2008, compared with 11 percent in 2004 and 10 percent in 2000. But voters under 30 years of age were still the same 11 percent of the vote that they were in 2004. The surge of young voters, which was supposed to animate Obama’s rise, failed to happen.
d) The turnout efforts of groups like ACORN made a huge difference. Ultimately, it was the difference in voter turnout among Republicans and Democrats that, in addition to the higher black vote, elected Obama. According to Curtis Gans of American University, Republican turnout dropped from 30 percent in 2004 to 28.7 percent of the electorate in 2008, while the Democratic proportion of voters rose from 28.7 percent to 31.3 percent. Much of this increase came from newly registered voters, many as a result of ACORN’s efforts. Voter registration rose by 6 million in 2008, which may have accounted for virtually all the increase in turnout.
The message for conservatives is clear:
The focus of Democrats on grassroots activism, begun in 1998 by MoveOn.org, was crucial to the Obama election. Instead of relying on the Republican Party to carry the message to the electorate, conservatives must organize their own grassroots movements — like GOPtrust.com — and boost turnout and enthusiasm among those who share their worldview. The backbreaking tasks of registering voters and getting out the vote are key to winning elections in the post-media era. Online networking and building of cyber-roots organizations is the way to go in competing in the new politics we face today.
Will the Republican Party get its act together to compete?
Who knows. Will conservatives take matters into their own hands and build the kind of organization and Internet base that the liberals have over the past 15 years? They better. Unless we want to witness a fundamental change in our laws, society and culture, conservatives had better get busy and emulate their leftist brethren in building organizations to tap into their base. In the ’80s, groups like the National Rifle Association and the Moral Majority filled this need. Today, new groups must move to the fore to fill the void. And they better do it fast!
Wild Thing's comment............
Excellent article and Sarah Palin sure did keep us from a horrible landslide, the liberals and the RINOs recognize this, hate her for it, and are doing all in their power to keep her from moving forward with the conservative base of the party towards 2012.
But it's not going to work!!
We need to keep writing to our Sen. and Rep.'s and keep after them and keep soldiering on. While standing up in any way we can ourselves over these next four years .
We lost, America lost but one thing that did come out of this that is good is we got to know Gov. Sarah Palin and she got to know that we voted for the ticket because she was on it.
...Thank you Mark for this article.
Posted by Wild Thing at November 13, 2008 05:48 AM
Comments
There was never any doubt that Sarah was the catalyst in McCain's bid for president. I still am not sure what prompted him to select her but it was obviously the smartest thing he ever did!!!
I find the stats interesting. 13% of the blacks voted for Obama and they make up roughly 15% of the US population. So guess who elected Obama.
If the Conservatives in this country hope to win in the future, they better go back to the drawing board as suggested in this article. It is evident (to the extent that you can believe stats) that a lot of Republicans lost faith in their party. This needs to be corrected by electing honest (well as honest as possible) representatives. IMO the Republicans lost this election themselves by not sticking to their principles and not connecting with the American public.
The young voter is a strong potential if we can ever get them educated in the political world (and not by our Liberal educational system) and connect with them. A lot of young people today are living in an "instant solution" world with a very vague understanding of how this country was formed and developed. I'm not trying to bash our young people for there are millions of fantastic youth out there (i.e. our military personnel) but if they don't understand the basics and what sacrifices were made to get where we are today, they will be very susceptible to apparent quick, sound-good, low involvement solutions so they can move on to the next task. We have a huge resource in our youth and are doing very little to promote their involvement. You can bet that the Dems are though!!!!! That is evident by the use of the internet in this election as noted in the article.
Sarah is one of the few out there that can begin to re-connect the conservative base and no matter in what capacity she becomes active in, she needs to be an intimate part of the rebuilding process.
Posted by: John at November 13, 2008 07:46 AM
All that I can say is that she should have gone out on her own and not groomed by McCain's campaign managers. They lost the election for him. McCaon should have stuck to the issues and Sarah Palin would have taken care of the rest. I have both of Fox News Greta interviews with her on my site
http://www.boudica.uspalin2012.html
We might have had "the girl next door" instead of the Chicago political whore.
Posted by: Bob A at November 13, 2008 08:38 AM
I know this isn't the case but on a second look at the picture above, the guy standing to the right and behind Sarah has a striking resemblence to Emanuel!!! Did Obama try in infiltrate her rallies to learn from a true conservative?!?!?! LMAO
Posted by: John at November 13, 2008 08:58 AM
Sarah doesn't necessarily have to run as a Republican...
Something the RNC should keep in mind.
Posted by: Rick at November 13, 2008 09:37 AM
In 2004 the Democrats were soundly defeated in both the Presidental and Congressional elections. People were wondering if the Democrat Party would ever recover from the historic beating they took and with infighting in the Democrat camp, it looked lost for them. But, within two (2) years they were able to overcome their defeat and win back both houses of Congress and within four (4) years they took back the White House and increased their majority in Congress.
We've got something the Democrats don't have. We've got a Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Duncan Hunter, Michael Steele, JC Watts, Tom McClintock, and other good strong Conservatives. These folks need to be encouraged and supported. They're the future of the Conservative movement, Republican Party, and ultimately our nation.
Posted by: BobF at November 13, 2008 10:17 AM
Sarah Palin definitely kept McCain from a severe drubbing and as Rick astutely points out "Sarah doesn't necessarily have to run as a Republican... Something the RNC should keep in mind." What glares is that the Party left us. I agree with BobF on the future, but we have to get the RNC on board, Michael Steele is eyeing the RNC Chairmanship to replace Mike Duncan, a good move but we'll have lost a good man into that maw without the base support.
From the rules of the of the GOP: http://www.gop.com//images/legal/2008_RULES_Adopted.pdf
"The Republican National Committee shall have the general management of the Republican Party, based upon the rules adopted by the Republican National Convention. The members of the Republican National Committee shall consist of one (1) national committeeman and one (1) national committeewoman from, and the chairman of the state Republican Party of, each state. "
It doesn't stop there.
" (a) There shall be an Executive Committee of the Republican National Committee to consist of twenty-eight (28) members of the Republican National Committee:"
Pay particular attention to Rule 5 and Rule 6. There are two RNC Committee members from each state, comprising one (1) man and one (1) woman including eight (8) vice chairmen, comprising one (1) man and one (1) woman from each of the following four (4) regions:
(i) The Western States Association: Alaska, American Samoa, Arizona, California, Colorado, Guam, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Northern Mariana Islands, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming;
(ii) The Midwestern States Association: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin;
(iii) The Northeastern States Association: Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Vermont, and the Virgin Islands; and
(iv) The Southern States Association: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia.
These are the RNC folks who make the selections for who gets the support and who doesn't. That means that the governing body that so misrably failed us was universally from the state level, we don't know these people yet they are there, and Chuck Yob of Michigan said it best when he claimed McCain was the best choice to win.
I felt from the outset that we had been disenfranchised by the Committee in the primary, you can vote but your vote doesn't count if your candidate is gone before your election day. Sure the line up was strong but none of the popular contenders had the RNC support, the dark horse came from the very rear to secure the position, without popular support.
Romney spent $$$Millions of his personal funds hanging in there trying to buy the Whitehouse, yet John McCain gets the RNC Nomination.
Kind of smacks of an internal agenda to bar Conservatives from contention.
Once in the arena John McCain behaved like a prize fighter paid to throw the fight.
Here is where you can find your state RNC member, http://www.gop.com/Connect/States.aspx , each state has four, two are on the state level and two are on the national level, this is where I feel the change needs to be made, the chairman Mike Duncan is their mouth piece (puppet) , a new chairman isn't going to do anything but ensure more of the same. The individual members have to be held accountable or the GOP will be no better than the Democrats.
We've been had and I for one will never trust them again.
Posted by: Jack at November 13, 2008 11:50 AM
Barack Obama built an enormous and technological political machine and organization that will not go away. The Republican Party and any candidate running for Congress or to be President can do no less if they want to play the game. BobF put it best when he said,
"We've got something the Democrats don't have. We've got a Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Duncan Hunter, Michael Steele, JC Watts, Tom McClintock, and other good strong Conservatives. These folks need to be encouraged and supported. They're the future of the Conservative movement, Republican Party, and ultimately our nation."
So, we all in our own way need to let these people know that we want them to work together to take on the Democrat/Liberal/Marxist enemy in the 2010 and 2012 elections as well as to be the conscience of 2008 and that they have our enthusiastic support from right now and until we win the war and take the Hill (Congress and the White House).
Posted by: Les at November 13, 2008 05:14 PM
John, I agree so much. It seems like every time I say ok that one is good, they mess up, but not on a small thing, always on something big. Sarah speaks and I just keep nodding my head yes I agree.
Just like the price of oil has gone down, but once again there is no longer a push to drill. This is just soooooo stupid, and she keeps hammering away about we need to drill.
Posted by: Wild Thing at November 13, 2008 05:49 PM
Bob A., oh I am so glad. I will head over to your blog later tonight and watch the second part of the interview. Thanks so much.
Posted by: Wild Thing at November 13, 2008 05:51 PM
John, LOL oh my gosh that guy does look similar to Emanuel. haha
Posted by: Wild Thing at November 13, 2008 05:54 PM
Rick yes the RNC needs to learn several huge lessons that what has happened.
Another one too is that the conservatives are the blood of the RNC, the back bone, the ones that get out and work and are activists so to speak. It is not the what they call the country club Repulicans that work hard in campaigns. They needs us and they better start to cater to what we stand for like they used to.
Posted by: Wild Thing at November 13, 2008 05:57 PM
BobF, wow thank you. That makes me feel better. Yes the dems were sinking fast and they came back and didn't even have a Sarah Palin. We can do it too.
Posted by: Wild Thing at November 13, 2008 06:01 PM
Jack, ....."Kind of smacks of an internal agenda to bar Conservatives from contention."....
It sure does, big time!!!
Jack thank you so much for the information and links too. Very important to read this.
Posted by: Wild Thing at November 13, 2008 06:04 PM
Les, ....."Barack Obama built an enormous and technological political machine and organization that will not go away"..... this is enormous in what his campaign did. It terrified me during the campaigns how organized it was, how his people were at every webiste, every YouTube. We know now they were paid but even so the organizing of what they did is remarkable.
I hope and pray the RNC learns from this how we need to organzie too. I agree with you too Les about we need to support the conservatives we know about.
Posted by: Wild Thing at November 13, 2008 06:09 PM
